I have a hot take as a comment on the preliminary results of the Swedish parliamant election which was held yesterday. It's about the coming four years and a naive prediction of mine regarding how the parties will position themselves. This is given that the "left block" actually succeeds in forming a government. We may very well end up with a similar government as the sitting one.
I believe the internal analysis of S will be that they went into the 2022 election on an anti-racist "left-wing program". In 2026 they were instead going into the election on an anti-racist alternative which has actually adopted nearly every issue the Tidö government implemented. They are now for limited immigration and hard on crime. Since the last election they've mostly bickered over small details, like the specific age threshold for teenage prison sentences and the timeline for scrapping the so called bulk discount on sentencing.
So in the coming years, as they try to guarantee a win in 2030, they're going to attempt to make the right irrelevant. They probably want to swap out V for some other party like KD in a 2030 government (and bet on L risking dropping out again), and the easiest way to do that is to keep going down the right-wing track, so that the right's only chance to distinguish itself becomes even harsher sentences than S's already harsh sentences, even harsher migration policy than S's already harsh migration policy, and so on. It would genuinely surprise me if they'd comfortably leaned back on a two-seat margin and run a true left-wing program. They can see that it didn't work for Tidö. The first thing Andersson is going to say to Dadgostar is "Sorry, you believe this is a massive success, but we have to block Tidö now, that's the most important thing we can do. It's going to be C policy all the way." Not least because they have to manage to form a government with C, who are going to be courted like hell by Tidö. The C leadership has probably already had indications of an offer from Tidö, with a concrete proposal coming within the week.
Bad for the xenophobes, but actually pretty reassuring for all the small savers, homeowners and business owners. The ones who'll grow the most by the next election are all the fringe parties. V will either lose all their mainstream confidence or they will lose voters to some smaller islamist party, the right will lose voters to the actual xenophobic parties to the right of SD. 2030 is likely to be far more fundamentally exciting compared to this uninteresting parliamentary election.